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The Future of Oil: Geology versus Technology

“We discuss and reconcile two diametrically opposed views concerning the future of world oil production and prices. The geological view expects that physical constraints will dominate the future evolution of oil output and prices. It is supported by the fact that world oil production has plateaued since 2005 despite historically high prices, and that spare capacity has been near historic lows. The technological view of oil expects that higher oil prices must eventually have a decisive effect on oil output, by encouraging technological solutions. It is supported by the fact that high prices have, since 2003, led to upward revisions in production forecasts based on a purely geological view. We present a nonlinear econometric model of the world oil market that encompasses both views. “

Kumhof, Benes, Kamenik et al. – IMF

Artigo bastante interessante pelo que já li.

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All the insanity of modern car culture, in one image

Insanity of modern times

via grist

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Peak Oil: The Crisis No One Is Talking About

NewImage

“Peak oil deniers will have you believe that more technology and the markets will solve the impending crisis. That, as the price of oil goes up the incentive for finding and extracting more will rise correspondingly. So we can extract ever more remote pockets of energy, from the open sea, from deep rock formations and from under the melting Arctic ice sheets. This may be true, but we have been scouring the globe for oil for the last century, we know enough about how oil forms to know where the largest fields are and we’ve tapped them already. New discoveries will be what keeps the end of our oil bell curve a slope rather than a cliff. Discovery can’t change the fact that the age of abundant, cheap oil is over.”

Peak Oil News

Curioso como o começo da crise actual se sobrepõe ao pico do preço do petróleo de 2007/2008…

Enquanto não reconhecermos o facto que uma das principais causas, senão a principal causa da crise, é a nossa base energética dificilmente sairemos daqui.

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Global Oil Production Update: A Strange Future Has Arrived

“Today, in 2012, I observe that many analysts of global oil production—and the interaction between oil prices and the global economy—continue to engage in a guessing game about the future. But, frankly, the future has already arrived. And it is not a random future, but a future that was held to be improbable, if not impossible. For each extra barrel of oil produced over the past seven years from Russia, and Canada, there has been a loss of production from the North Sea, from Mexico, from Indonesia and elsewhere. “

Peak Oil News

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Bosco Verticale

Bosco Vertical


“Bosco Verticale (Vertical Forest) is a project for metropolitan reforestation that contributes to the regeneration of the environment and urban biodiversity without the implication of expanding the city upon the territory. Bosco Verticale is a model of vertical densification of nature within the city. It is a model that operates correlated to the policies for reforestation and naturalization of the large urban and metropolitan borders (Metrosbosco). Metrobosco and Bosco Verticale are devices for the environmental survival of contemporary European cities. Together they create two modes of building links between nature and city within the territory and within the cities of contemporary Europe.
The first example of a Bosco Verticale composed of two residential towers of 110 and 76 meters height, will be realized in the centre of Milan, on the edge of the Isola neighbourhood, and will host 900 trees (each measuring 3, 6 or 9 m tall) apart from a wide range of shrubs and floral plants.”

 

stefano boeri

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Colin Campbell’s Response to the Guardian IEA Reporting

Given the central role of oil in the modern economy, the peak of production promises to be a turning point of historical magnitude. It seems that banks have been lending more than they had on deposit, confident that Tomorrow’s Economic Growth was collateral for Today’s Debt, without recognising that the expansion was fuelled by cheap oil-based energy. The Governments are now printing yet more money under Keynesian principles in the hope of restoring past prosperity, which may meet with a brief success. But if it does, it would stimulate the demand for oil that would again soon breach the supply limits, leading to another price shock and an even worse consequent economic depression. In fact, today 28 billion barrels a year support a world population on 6.7 billion people, but by 2050 the supply will have fallen to a level able to support less than half that number in their present way of life.

Colin Campbell

Hoje encontrei um pequeno artigo do Colin Campbell em 2009 sobre a relação entre o pico do petróleo, a grande recessão onde nos encontramos e a questão do “cheap printing money”.

Sugiro darem uma vista de olhos. bastante claro e perceptível mesmo para quem não conhece bem a problemática. Foi escrito há 2 anos mas poderia ter sido escrito hoje. tudo se mantêm.

O artigo do Guardian ao qual se refere o texto está transcrito aqui.

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Farmer’s Market

PastedGraphic 1

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Puxando a brasa à minha sardinha..

“Todos os meus filhos foram e irão para a Universidade portuguesa. O ensino superior português é de elevadíssima qualidade. As nossas escolas de engenharia são das melhores do mundo. O Instituto Superior Técnico é uma das melhores escolas de engenharia do mundo. E eu sei, porque temos na Hovione engenheiros vindos das melhores escolas do mundo.

Peter Villax – entrevista ao Jornal i

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The Future of Food Under LED Lights


“The Netherlands-based company PlantLab is pushing the “vertical agriculture” movement to new heights by rethinking the fundamental ways that plants interact with essential ingredients like sunlight and using data to optimize growing conditions. Their results could help keep the world’s surging population fed despite dwindling natural resources. Usually, plants soak up light from the sun (or grow lights if they’re hydroponic). But they only need a small percent of the full light spectrum, and getting too much can accelerate dehydration. PlantLab cuts out the excess by using red and blue LED lights, which speed growth and thus could increase crop yields dramatically. And since the facility is climate-controlled, production of particular types of produce isn’t limited by the season.”

 

GOOD – Food

Isto poderá ser uma das maiores invenções/descobertas da Humanidade. E eliminar por completo o problema da produção de alimentos localmente e em zonas densamente povoadas. Se for também combinada com tecnologia hidropónica, Lua/Marte e afins, aí vamos nós.

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The Secret of the Fibonacci Sequence in Trees

“I saw patterns that showed that the tree design avoided the problem of shade from other objects. Electricity dropped in the flat-panel array when shade fell on it. But the tree design kept making electricity under the same conditions. The Fibonacci pattern allowed some solar panels to collect sunlight even if others were in shade. Plus I observed that the Fibonacci pattern helped the branches and leaves on a tree to avoid shading each other.”

The Secret of the Fibonacci Sequence in Trees